Prescott MSA May 2025 Summary
Delaney O’Kray-Murphy, EBRC research economist
Mixed signals in Prescott’s first quarter economy
Exhibit 1 presents current Prescott MSA economic indicators.
Due to methodological changes and the transition to the 2020-based Office of Management and Budget (OMB) metropolitan area delineations, seasonally adjusted data for metropolitan areas and divisions were not included with the January-March news releases. These data may not be available for several months. As such, labor force data will be presented in its non-seasonally adjusted form, while all other indicators will follow the standard format outlined in Exhibit 1.
In March, the non-seasonally adjusted civilian labor force in the Prescott MSA decreased by 574, or 0.5%, compared to the previous year. In contrast, January and February posted over-the-year gains of 800 (0.8%) and 1,780 (1.7%), respectively. The slight decline in March may reflect an elevated labor force level in the same month last year, rather than decreased participation.
In the Prescott MSA, non-seasonally adjusted resident employment declined in March by 1,703, (1.6%) to 102,298 compared to the same month last year. In contrast, January and February both posted over-the-year gains in employment, increasing by 1,276 (1.2%) and 198 (0.2%), respectively, mirroring the trends seen in labor force size.
Non-seasonally adjusted unemployment in the Prescott MSA rose by 1,129 (35.4%) over the year to 4,314. January and February also recorded over-the-year increases in unemployment, rising by 602 (16.9%) and 504 (14.5%), respectively. At the state level, Arizona experienced year-over-year increases in unemployment each month this year, with March’s total reaching 152,569; an increase of 40,013 (35.5%) from the same month in 2024.
The non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the Prescott MSA was 4.0% in March, up one percentage point from 3.0% a year earlier. January and February also showed year-over-year increases, rising by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively, to 3.7% and 3.9%. At the state level, Arizona’s unemployment rate stood at 3.9% in both January and February, and 4.0% in March.
Non-seasonally adjusted hourly earnings in the Prescott MSA posted year-over-year gains in the first three months of 2025. In January and February, earnings increased by 7.9% and 7.2%, reaching $26.76 and 27.16%, respectively. March saw a more modest gain of 5.0%, with hourly earnings at $26.58. Based on this rate, the estimated annual salary for a full-time worker is $55,286.
Seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment in the Prescott MSA dipped slightly in January but posted stronger gains in February and March. Employment fell by 100 over the month to 71,700 in January; then rose by 200 in February and March, reaching 71,900 and 72,100, respectively. In comparison, Arizona added jobs in all three months, with statewide employment increasing from 3,223,300 in January to 3,266,200 in March.
Non-seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment in the Prescott MSA recorded year-over-year declines in the first three months of 2025. In January, employment fell by 1.2% to 71,200, followed by a 1.0% decrease in February to 72,000. March posted the largest decline, with employment down 1.9% year-over-year to 71,900.
Among industries in the Prescott MSA, Other Services posted the strongest year-over-year growth in March, increasing by 3.8% to 2,700 jobs. State and Local Government (+1.0%) and Private Education and Health Services (+0.8%) also saw modest gains.
On the other hand, Manufacturing experienced the largest decline, falling 7.9% to 3,500 jobs, followed by Federal Government, down 5.0% to 1,900. Other notable decreases included Mining, Logging, and Construction (-4.1%), Professional and Business Services (-4.0%), Leisure and Hospitality (-3.0%), and Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (-2.9%). Employment levels in Information, Financial Activities, and certain parts of Government remained unchanged.
Non-seasonally adjusted retail sales (excluding food and gasoline) in the Prescott MSA rose in each of the first three months of 2025. In March, sales increased by nearly $6 million, or 2.2%, compared to the same month last year. January and February also posted gains, rising by $4.4 million (1.9%) and $13.4 million (6.2%), respectively.
Non-seasonally adjusted total housing permits in the Prescott MSA declined year-over-year in each of the first three months of 2025. March saw a 22.4% drop to 118 permits, following declines of 26.7% in January (to 107 permits) and 22.4% in February (to 112 permits). Single-family permits followed a slightly different pattern. February stood out with a 17.4% year-over-year increase, rising to 108 permits. However, both January and March recorded declines, with March falling 20.3% to 118.
Exhibit 1: Prescott MSA Monthly Economic Indicators
