Jobs soften but paychecks grow to round out 2025

Exhibit 1 presents current Prescott MSA economic indicators.

In November, the seasonally adjusted civilian labor force in the Prescott MSA stood at 108,321, gaining 500 over the month. After gradually declining from 107,440 in February to 106,855 in May, the labor force has been gradually recovering. Despite recent monthly gains, the civilian labor force year-to-date stands 2.9% smaller than in the prior year.

In the Prescott MSA, seasonally adjusted resident employment edged up to 102,648 in November, up 382 from October. Employment has trended lower throughout 2025, falling from 106,673 in December 2024 to approximately 103,000 in recent months. Year to date, resident employment in the first eight months is 3.5% lower than in the same period last year.

Seasonally adjusted unemployment in the Prescott MSA rose by 98 (2.2%) over the month to 4,629 in November. Nearly every month this year has shown increases in seasonally adjusted unemployment, rising from 3,851 in January to the current year-to-date high. Year to date, resident unemployment has increased by 16.1% compared to the same period last year. At the state level, unemployment has shown a similar trend, rising from 146,714 in January to 167,230 in December, a 14.0% increase.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the Prescott MSA rose 0.1 percentage points to 4.3% in November. The rate has climbed gradually throughout 2024, rising from 3.6% in January to 4.3% today. Arizona’s statewide unemployment rate followed a similar trajectory, starting at 3.9% in January and February before rising to 4.3% in November and December.

Non-seasonally adjusted hourly earnings in the Prescott MSA posted gains of 10.1% in December, rising by $2.62 year-over-year to $28.68. October and November observed similar wage growth, with hourly earnings up 9.0% to $28.39 and 7.2% to $28.02, respectively. December’s rate of $28.68 is roughly equivalent to an annual salary of $59,654 for a full-time worker.

Seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment in the Prescott MSA reached 71,800 in December, up 200 (0.3%) from November. Employment has been relatively flat in recent months, edging down from 72,000 in April to 71,400 in September before the modest end of year gains. Arizona’s statewide employment showed similar volatility, declining by 15,200 in June and 4,100 in November, but posting modest gains of 3,500 in September, 4,200 in October, and 6,400 in December.

Non-seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment in the Prescott MSA fell 0.1% year-over-year to 72,200 in December. Most months in 2024 have shown year-over-year declines, with July and November being the only exceptions, posting gains of 0.6% to 70,100 and 0.2% to 72,400.

Among industries in the Prescott MSA, Mining, Logging, and Construction posted the strongest year-over-year growth in December, increasing by 4.3% to 7,300. Other Services (3.7%) and Private Education and Health Services (2.3%) also saw solid growth in December.

On the other hand, Manufacturing experienced the largest year-over-year decline, falling 5.6% to 3,400 jobs in December, followed by Trade, Transportation, and Utilities (-2.9%). Other notable decreases included Professional and Business Services (1.4%) and Leisure and Hospitality (-1.0%). Employment levels in Information, Financial Activities, Federal Government, and State and Local Government were unchanged over the year.

Non-seasonally adjusted retail sales excluding food and gasoline in the Prescott MSA rose by 3.4% year-over-year in December to $308.1 million. October showed a slight decline of 0.9% to $257.3 million before rising by 1.4% over the year to $257.3 million in November.

Prescott MSA non-seasonally adjusted housing permits fell 17.3% over the year in October 2025. Single-family permits also declined significantly. Multi-family were unchanged over the year. Overall, Prescott MSA permits are likely to decline significantly in 2025.

Exhibit 1: Prescott MSA Monthly Economic Indicators