By George W. Hammond, Ph.D.
Director and Research Professor, EBRC
March 14, 2021
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (and the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity) have released benchmarked employment data for Arizona. Total nonfarm employment has been revised down significantly in 2020 and up slightly in 2019, as Exhibit 1 shows.
The benchmarked data suggests that Arizona jobs in January 2021 were down by 119,000 from February 2020. The preliminary data suggested a gap of 90,100 jobs as of December 2020. The benchmarked data show a gap of 132,800 in December 2020.
Exhibit 1: Arizona Total Nonfarm Jobs, Preliminary and Benchmarked, Seasonally Adjusted
Exhibit 2: Arizona Job Change by Industry, February 2020 to January 2021, Thousands, Seasonally Adjusted
Exhibit 3: Arizona Job Gaps Relative to February 2020, Seasonally Adjusted, in Percent
Weekly Roundup
Be sure to check out the daily vaccination data below to track Arizona’s progress in getting the vaccine distributed through the population.
TSA traveler throughput rose for the sixth consecutive week, reaching 8.0 million travelers for the week ended March 13. That put passenger traffic at its highest level since March 14, 2020. Even so, passengers were down 45.2% from last year.
The Census Bureau has posted the latest monthly update of weekly new business applications for Arizona. The data suggest the continuation of a strong upward trend, with applications ranging from 650 to 750 per week during February.
OpenTable has revised the seated diner data for 2021. The percent changes now reflect the difference between activity in 2021 and 2019. Overall, seated diners at restaurants using the OpenTable app have improved recently, but remain down 37.0% for the U.S., 22.8% for Arizona, and 41.6% for Phoenix.
Arizona initial claims for regular unemployment insurance fell to 3,648 for the week ended March 6, down from 4,091 the prior week. Initial claims were up 18.2% over the year. Initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance rose to 1,228, up from 847 the prior week.
According to the Arizona Department of Employment Security, they have paid out $13.8 billion in (federal and state) unemployment insurance benefits paid from mid-March 2020 through March 6, 2021. The UI Trust Fund balance fell to $60.8 million, from $65.8 million the prior week.
U.S. initial claims for regular unemployment insurance fell from 756,628 the prior week to 709,458 for the week ended March 6. U.S. initial claims were up 227.0% over the year last week. Initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance rose to 478,001 for the week ended March 6, from 436,138 the prior week.
The U.S. hotel occupancy rate rose to 49.0% for the week ended March 6, up from 47.5% the prior week. The occupancy rate was 23.6% below last year.
U.S. movie ticket sales more than doubled for the week ended March 4, according to revised data. However, at just $21.3 million, that was 84.4% below last year. Preliminary data for the week ended March 11 put sales at $20.9 million. Expect that figure to be revised up next week.
Travel to retail and recreation places continued to trend up during the week ended March 6, but is still well below activity in January 2020 for the U.S., Arizona, Maricopa County, and Pima County. Travel was down between 12.7% and 17.5%. Even so, travel reached the highest levels since March 14, 2020 for Arizona, Maricopa County, and Pima County. In contrast, travel to work remained relatively unchanged, with no strong upward trend yet.
Chart, view and download all the data discussed above on our COVID-19 page.
