by Valorie H. Rice
Senior Specialist, Business Information
DATA RELEASES AS OF 5 JANUARY 2018
Imports rose by $6.0 billion in November, bringing the U.S. trade deficit to $50.5 billion which is the largest it has been since January 2012. The joint U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Census Bureau January 5 release indicated that exports also rose by $4.4 billion to $200.2 billion compared to $250.7 billion imports. Year-to-date, the deficit of goods and services was 11.6% above the same period in 2016.
U.S. total nonfarm employment rose 148,000 in December with health care, construction, and manufacturing leading gaining the most jobs according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment situation release on January 5. Employment growth was 2.1 million in 2017 compared to 2.2 million in 2016. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%; this was the third month in a row for that rate. The January employment report will include revisions for both the household survey (unemployment rate) for new population controls and the establishment survey (nonfarm payroll employment) reflecting annual benchmarking including additional changes due to converting from the 2012 NAICS to 2017 NAICS. The notice indicates that approximately 4% of employment will be reclassified into different industries as a result.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices for October 2017 were released December 26. Phoenix house prices had a one-year price change of 6.0%, just below the 6.2% increase posted for the U.S. Seattle house prices continued to be the highest at 12.7% followed by Las Vegas at 10.2% and San Diego at 8.1%. The 20-city composite posted a 6.4% one-year gain in prices.
DATA RELEASES AS OF 22 DECEMBER 2017
Arizona was one of only eight states with a drop in unemployment rates for November according to the December 22 Bureau of Labor Statistics state-level employment report. Arizona’s 4.3% unemployment rate for November continues to be the lowest we have seen in a decade and several states (Alabama, California, Hawaii, Mississippi, and Texas) had rates that were the lowest since 1976, when the data series began. The high and low unemployment rates for November were Hawaii at the low end with a rate of 2.0% and Alaska the high end at 7.2%.
November job growth was 1.6% in Arizona over the year, just above the U.S. at 1.4%. Arizona’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.3% according to the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity December 21 release. Education and health services was again the sector with the most year over year growth. Three industries lost jobs – natural resources and mining, information, and other services. Other services has declined every month in 2017. November employment change for Arizona metros: Phoenix 2.2%, Yuma 1.1%, Sierra Vista 0.9%, Lake Havasu City-Kingman 0.8%, Prescott 0.5%, Flagstaff 0.0%, and Tucson -0.7%.
U.S. real GDP increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.2% in the third quarter as indicated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis December 21 release. The second quarter 2017 real GDP increase was 3.1%.
Arizona state personal income increased at the same rate as the U.S. average in the third quarter 2017. The 0.7% change from the preceding quarter placed Arizona 14th among states according to the December 20 Bureau of Economic Analysis release. The largest increases in personal income were in Washington (1.0%) and Texas (0.9%).
The Census placed Arizona population growth at 1.6%, ranking it 6th highest in the nation according to the December 20 state and national July 1, 2017 population estimates. Idaho was the fastest-growing state in the nation for 2017 with 2.2% population growth, while Wyoming lost 1.0% of their population. The Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity placed population growth for the state at 1.5% after an adjustment for method change.
The Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity released July 1, 2017 population estimates for Arizona counties and incorporated places on December 14. Arizona’s population now stands at 6,965,879. Nine Arizona counties are over 100,000 and the two largest are over a million.
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the December 13 Bureau of Labor Statistics release. The energy index increased 3.9%, making it the biggest contributor to increase in the overall index. The index for all items less food and energy went up 0.1% for the month. Annual inflation rate was 2.2% for November.
Producer prices rose 0.4% in November on a seasonally adjusted basis. Final demand goods rose 1.0% and final demand services were up just 0.2%. Producer prices changed 3.1% over the year according to the December 12 Bureau of Labor Statistics release.
