by Valorie H. Rice
Senior Specialist, Business Information
Latest Analysis
The number of announcements of job increase exceeded announcements of job losses in Arizona for all of 2019. That ended in January 2020 when add and loss announcements were equal. The number of positive job announcements then surged in February with 13 add announcements versus four loss announcements, the majority accredited to the Phoenix area.
This means that there were 13 news reports and/or press releases indicating that a company was moving into or adding jobs in Arizona while there were only four news reports and/or WARN notices indicating a company had closed or was letting staff go.
The state was still doing well the first part of March. Of the 13 add announcements for March, most appeared in the first two weeks of the month. There were a handful add announcements coming in even during the second part of the month. WARN notices started to pick up in the middle of March, however, with many indicating COVID-19 as the reason for the cuts. By the end of March, there were 34 loss announcements for the month; two and a half times the number of add announcements.
Typically, WARN notices are just a helpful addition to news reports when tracking losses, but it proved to be the primary source for job loss information this time around. Events unfolded at such speed that very few individual announcements of job loss appeared in the news media during March. There were reports of many businesses closing or drastically decreasing staff but few specifying which businesses and how many staff (a requirement for inclusion in the job add/loss database). WARN notices filled in that gap. We know from a tally of job numbers listed in the notices that it does not come close to the number of unemployment claims filed.
Like the job loss information, there were also many news items indicating businesses such as Amazon, Walmart, CVS and grocery stores were hiring nationwide, but no real indication as to how many jobs that would translate into for Arizona. Walmart specified the number of jobs that were expected to be added in Arizona, and it is included in the add announcements. There were add announcements trickling in during the second part of March, including a local manufacturer that switched gears to be able to make N95 masks by May and expects to hire, but the number of loss announcements drowned out the additions.
Overview and Background
For the past 18 years, EBRC has been tracking firm announcements that impact employment. The data displayed below track the monthly number for firm announcements of job increase or decrease that have appeared in Arizona news publications and in which job figures are specifically cited. The data for Phoenix and Tucson reflect the location of the job increase or decrease not the location of the publication in which the announcement appeared. The data also reflect when the announcement is reported, not necessarily when the job gains or losses are expected to go into effect. This is important to note as there are many announcements of businesses planning to build a facility in Arizona that will not be in place for a year or more.
The news sources tracked for these data include the Arizona Daily Star, the Arizona Republic, Inside Tucson Business, Phoenix Business Journal, the Arizona Commerce Authority, Sun Corridor Inc., and press releases (usually from the company itself), along with various other newspapers and news media outlets from around the state. WARN notices from Arizona Job Connection are also tracked, which is important as many job loss announcements do not indicate the number of cuts.
